Migration and housing demand across Australia's capital cities

Australia's population passed 27.5 million in March 2025. In the year to June 2025, the population grew by 416,740 people: 114,556 from natural increase (births minus deaths) and 302,184 from net overseas migration. Net overseas migration therefore accounted for 72.5% of total population growth.

The shift is easiest to see against the last full pre-pandemic year. In 2018–19, natural increase accounted for 37.5% of population growth and net overseas migration for 62.5%, calculated from the ABS's preliminary estimates for that year. By 2024–25, migration's share had reached 72.5%, even after successive periods of easing from the post-reopening peak.

Components of population growth: 2018–19 versus 2024–25

Melbourne and Sydney took in the largest numbers of migrants in 2024–25, with net overseas migration of 81,168 and 78,403 respectively. Together, the two cities accounted for 52.8% of Australia's total net overseas migration that year, despite accounting for about 40% of the national population (based on the national population estimate for March 2025 and city populations as at June 2025).

Perth and Brisbane recorded lower migration totals than Melbourne and Sydney but had the highest overall population growth rates. Perth's population grew by 2.4% in 2024–25, the fastest rate among the eight capitals, with net overseas migration of 37,289. Brisbane grew by 2.1% with net overseas migration of 33,934. Hobart and Darwin recorded smaller migration gains, but net overseas migration remained the largest positive component of population growth in both capitals.

Overseas migration is concentrated not only in Australia's capital cities, but also within particular parts of those cities. Centre for Population analysis found that inner-city regions in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth received around 15% of national net overseas migration in 2023–24, despite accounting for 5.9% of Australia's population.

Historical construction data shows a different pattern depending on the type of home being built. Detailed ABS figures covering March 2016 to December 2019 show that new houses were concentrated mainly in outer suburban growth areas, while apartment completions were concentrated more heavily in inner-city locations.

In Melbourne, Cranbourne East recorded 8,377 completed houses during the period, while the Melbourne SA2 recorded 8,533 completed apartments. Sydney showed a similar divide, with 8,034 houses completed in Riverstone–Marsden Park and 5,950 apartments completed in Waterloo–Beaconsfield.

Victoria recorded the highest dwelling completions total in 2024–25, at 56,383 dwellings, followed by New South Wales at 42,725 and Queensland at 33,880. Together, the three states accounted for 75.8% of all dwellings completed nationally during the financial year.

Western Australia completed 22,516 dwellings, the fourth-highest total among the states and territories. South Australia completed 12,870 dwellings, while the Australian Capital Territory, Tasmania and the Northern Territory each completed fewer than 5,000.

Net overseas migration eased to 192,703 in the year to June 2020, as border measures began in the final months of that financial year. It then collapsed to −84,930 in the year to June 2021, recording a negative annual result, as pandemic border closures cut off nearly all inbound travel.

Migration turned positive again as borders began reopening in late 2021, reaching 207,912 in the year to June 2022, then rose well above pre-pandemic levels: 538,341 in the year to June 2023, the highest financial-year figure on record. Measured on a rolling annual basis at the end of each quarter, the underlying peak was even higher, at 556,000 in the year to September 2023.

Migration generally eased after that peak. It fell to 429,162 in 2023–24, then 302,184 in 2024–25, a 29.6% fall in that year alone. The latest estimate was 300,955 in the year to December 2025, marginally below the June 2025 figure and well below the September 2023 peak.

Australia's population, which passed 27.5 million in the March quarter of 2025, is projected to reach 31.5 million by 2035–36, according to the Centre for Population's 2025 Population Statement, released in January 2026. These are population projections rather than guaranteed outcomes: they are modelled on assumed future levels of net overseas migration, fertility and mortality, and change as those assumptions are updated.

The gap between the Statement's own migration assumption of 260,000 for 2025–26 and the 2026–27 Budget's later revision to 295,000 illustrates how quickly the inputs can shift. The Population Statement projects population growth of 1.3% in 2025–26 and an average of 1.2% a year from 2026–27 onwards, below the 1.6% average seen through the 2010s.

The projections show that population growth will remain concentrated in the capitals. Capital-city populations are projected to grow by an average of 1.4% a year to 2035–36, compared with 0.8% for the rest of each state. Among the capitals shown, Melbourne and Perth are jointly projected to record the highest annual growth rate in 2035–36, at 1.5%.

The capital-city projections below remain those published in the 2025 Population Statement and do not incorporate the later Budget migration forecast.