When will Australia reach 30 million? Official population projections

Growth is projected to slow before the population passes 30 million. The Centre for Population's central scenario has the population growing by 1.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 1.3 per cent in 2025-26, based on changes in its year-end population series. The slowdown largely reflects falling net overseas migration and fertility rates⁴.

The central scenario adds between 332,400 and 359,700 people in each year from 2026-27 to 2035-36, based on year-to-year changes in the published population figures. It reaches 31,470,400 at 30 June 2036, which the Statement rounds to 31.5 million¹.

Natural increase and migration both contribute to the projected growth. In 2025-26 the central scenario has natural increase of 99,200, from births of 285,500 and deaths of 186,400, alongside net overseas migration of 262,400. Natural increase then rises from 105,200 in 2026-27 to a peak of 129,900 in 2031-32 before declining to 119,000 in 2035-36, while net overseas migration is projected to reach 235,000 in that year¹.

Western Australia has the highest projected growth rate. Its population increases from 3,042,200 at 30 June 2025 to 3,562,400 at 30 June 2036 in the central scenario, an increase of 520,200 people or 17.1 per cent⁵. The Statement describes Western Australia as expected to be Australia's fastest growing state or territory in the coming years, and Tasmania as remaining the slowest growing⁴.

Victoria and New South Wales are projected to add more people than Western Australia. Victoria adds 1,151,700 people, the largest increase of any state or territory, to reach 8,221,700. New South Wales adds 1,027,300 people to reach 9,625,400, the largest projected population of any state or territory. Their growth rates are 16.3 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively⁵. Queensland grows 15.7 per cent to 6,558,000 and the Australian Capital Territory 15.6 per cent to 560,800.

Capital cities are projected to grow nearly twice as fast as rest-of-state areas.⁴ The ABS projections also have 68 per cent of Australia's population living in capital cities by 2032, up from 67 per cent at 30 June 2022². The ABS also projects Melbourne to surpass Sydney between 2032 and 2046 and to reach between 6.5 million and 9.9 million people by 2071.

What that concentration means for dwelling demand is covered in the population growth versus housing supply article.

The projected range spans about 11.5 million people by 2071, derived by subtracting the low series from the high. The ABS projects Australia's population to grow from 26.0 million at 30 June 2022 to between 34.3 and 45.9 million people by 2071, with the medium series at 39.2 million. The gap between the series widens over time as their different assumptions accumulate². Growth slows in every series. The ABS states the ten-year average annual growth rate to 2022, 1.4 per cent, is projected to decline to between 0.2 and 0.9 per cent.

Later milestones also differ between the series. The high series passes 35 million at 30 June 2043, 40 million at 30 June 2056 and 45 million at 30 June 2069. The medium series passes 35 million at 30 June 2051 and reaches 39,185,129 at the end of the horizon. The low series does not reach 35 million by 2071, ending at 34,343,015². The Centre for Population's extended central scenario sits between the ABS medium and high paths, with 41,002,700 people at the end of 2065-66¹.

The zero net overseas migration assumption shows how the projected population changes without net migration from overseas. Under that assumption, Australia's population peaks at 26,911,719 people at 30 June 2036 and declines to 23,932,547 by 2071, never reaching 30 million².