Is Australia on track to build 1.2 million homes by June 2029?
Australia is not yet on track to hit the National Housing Accord’s target of 1.2 million new homes by 30 June 2029.
Is Australia on track to build 1.2 million homes by June 2029?
Short answer: No — not yet. Australia is running about a year behind schedule, with a projected shortfall of 262,000 homes.
The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council's March 2026 Quarterly Report puts the national completion date at June 2030, not June 2029. In its State of the Housing System 2025, the Council forecast just 938,000 dwellings over the five-year Accord window — well short of the 1.2 million target.
The better news: approvals and commencements have both risen 17% since the Accord began, so the pipeline is improving even though completions are still too slow.
Note: The ABS December 2025 Building Activity release is scheduled for 8 April 2026. The latest official completions data available at the time of writing runs only to September 2025.
Target pace vs actual pace
To hit 1.2 million homes in five years, Australia needs to average 240,000 dwellings a year — or 60,000 a quarter.
NHSAC says 219,000 homes were completed over the first five quarters of the Accord. That works out to roughly 43,800 homes a quarter and 175,200 a year — about 73% of the pace required.
The pipeline looks better than completions alone suggest:
- Approvals and commencements both up 17% since the Accord began
- 25% of the implied target had been approved
- But only 18% had actually been built
| Quarter | Actual completions | Straight-line target | Quarterly gap | Cumulative actual | Cumulative target | Cumulative gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-24 | 44,762 | 60,000 | -15,238 | 44,762 | 60,000 | -15,238 |
| Dec-24 | 45,288 | 60,000 | -14,712 | 90,050 | 120,000 | -29,950 |
| Mar-25 | 43,514 | 60,000 | -16,486 | 133,564 | 180,000 | -46,436 |
| Jun-25 | 41,168 | 60,000 | -18,832 | 174,732 | 240,000 | -65,268 |
| Sep-25 | 44,242 | 60,000 | -15,758 | 218,974 | 300,000 | -81,026 |
Source: ABS Building Activity, Australia, September 2025 seasonally adjusted completions series; National Housing Accord target from Treasury.
State-by-state scorecard
NHSAC's state scorecard uses implied population-share targets, not formal negotiated state quotas. No state or territory is currently projected to hit its share by June 2029.
The closest are Victoria, Western Australia and the ACT (expected September 2029). New South Wales slips to June 2031, while Tasmania and the Northern Territory are much further behind.
| Jurisdiction | Built share of implied target | Gap vs 25% pace | Approved share | Expected completion date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 15% | -10 pp | 21% | Jun 2031 |
| Victoria | 23% | -2 pp | 28% | Sep 2029 |
| Queensland | 17% | -8 pp | 26% | Sep 2030 |
| South Australia | 19% | -6 pp | 27% | Sep 2030 |
| Western Australia | 22% | -3 pp | 29% | Sep 2029 |
| Tasmania | 12% | -13 pp | 15% | Sep 2033 |
| Northern Territory | 5% | -20 pp | 9% | After 2034 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 23% | -2 pp | 25% | Sep 2029 |
| Australia | 18% | -7 pp | 25% | Jun 2030 |
Source: NHSAC Quarterly Report – March 2026. The 25% benchmark reflects five of the Accord's 20 quarters having elapsed. Expected completion dates are model-based.
The size of the shortfall
There are two shortfall numbers to watch:
- The "so far" gap: After the first five quarters, Australia was about 81,000 homes behind a straight-line path to 1.2 million.
- The full-period gap: NHSAC projected 938,000 dwellings over 2024–25 to 2028–29 — 262,000 below the Accord target.
The 262,000 figure is the right one for judging the Accord target because it is measured in gross completions. After demolitions, the Council projected net new supply of 825,000 dwellings — falling 79,000 short of expected new underlying demand. That matters for affordability, but it's a different benchmark from the 1.2 million gross-home target.
| Jurisdiction | Forecast homes built | Implied target share | Approx gap | Forecast as % of target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 246,000 | 376,000 | ~130,000 | 65% |
| Victoria | 300,000 | 306,000 | ~6,000 | 98% |
| Queensland | 194,000 | 246,000 | ~52,000 | 79% |
| Western Australia | 105,000 | 129,000 | ~24,000 | 81% |
| South Australia | 59,000 | 84,000 | ~25,000 | 71% |
| Tasmania | 13,000 | 26,000 | ~13,000 | 51% |
| Australian Capital Territory | 16,000 | 21,000 | ~5,000 | 78% |
| Northern Territory | 4,000 | 11,000 | ~7,000 | 31% |
| Australia | 938,000 | 1,200,000 | 262,000 | 78% |
Approx gap is calculated from the rounded figures published in NHSAC Table O.1.
The bottom line
Approvals and commencements are improving, but completions are still well below the pace needed. On the latest official scorecard, Australia is running about a year late nationally, and on the latest full-period forecast it falls 262,000 homes short of the June 2029 target.